GREEN ENERGY
==========
THOUGHTS: Renewables costs will fall and pose an existential threat to inefficient thermal power producers. Falling storage costs will further reduce the scope of thermal power for balancing the grid ⟀◘
THOUGHTS: Renewables will certainly curtail the wasteful consumption of fossil fuels in the power sector. Safe nuclear may also be there to replace thermal generation. But, the need for more gas production and new oil fields remains for 2040. Gas demand can be met by many sustainable sources, oil can be eliminated from the transport sector, but there are many other uses for oil. Good, but it does NOT seem to stop the catastrophic rise in sea levels nor the relentless rise in air temperatures!! ⟀◘
THOUGHTS: We should see a resumption of the massive scaling up of Indian solar capacity. Even domestic producers will be benefited by specially targetted procurements. However, thermal power producers can't be in worse strife: an amazing 46 GW of coal-based projects are under construction and face an uncertain future!! ⟀◘
Renewable power replacing Thermal
--------------------------------
New technologies will boost efficiencies in renewal power -- so much that by 2030, solar could cost Rs 1.9 - 2.3/unit, wind @ Rs 2.3-2.6/unit, and storage costs fall by 70%. Solar tracking and higher mast heights (btw 100 - 120m) are keys for achieving lower costs. The decline in storage cost (solar plus storage @ Rs 6.34/unit) will facilitate high penetrations of cheap solar into the grid.
By contrast, coal power will be more expensive. The cheapest pithead plants will be @ Rs 4.85/unit and others @ Rs 7/unit. The report says that coal power will be hit by rising transport costs and higher capital requirement to improve efficiencies and reduce pollution.
Investment is only slightly above current levels (Rs 1.75 lakh cr pa, up from Rs 1.45 lakh cr pa). In a high renewables scenario, the renewables share will reach 30% of total generation and 390 GW capacity. Small hydro and biomass projects will push this to 420 GW. Large hydro and nuclear will take it to 45% of total generation.
◘ Grid emission factor will fall by 25% from 733 gCO2/kWh in 2018 to 555 gCO2/kWh in 2030.
◘ The additional cost of balancing the grid @ 30% variable renewables, will be minimal.
◘ No new thermal plant, except designed to support renewables (with managed flexibility to balance the grid).
◘ Coal generation will stop growing from 2026-27. It will fall as coal plants retire, so most plants will be gone by 2050.
◘ Residential demand will grow strongly, with air conditioning a/c for 10% of demand.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/share-of-clean-energy-can-go-up-to-45-by-2030-in-india-despite-doubling-consumption-teri/67983171
Global demand for Energy till 2040
------------------------------
The scenario is based on a transition (via govt policy, innovation, society preferences) at the same old pace. Carbon emissions will rise at unacceptable rates -- as is predicted by climate experts, and this will prompt govts to take stronger measures to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
◘ 75% of new primary energy (and 85% of new energy supply) will be consumed in the power sector. Energy consumed by industry and buildings will rise to 75%, and transport demand falls quite sharply.
◘ Renewable energy will penetrate faster than any fuel has before, in history. It will become the largest source of power generation by 2040.
◘ Gas demand will grow
◘ Oil demand will rise in the first half of the period and then gradually plateau. Significant investment must be made for new oil fields to meet oil demand in 2040
◘ Coal demand is broadly flat
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/bp-energy-outlook-india-china-to-lead-energy-demand-growth-through-2040/67997466
Status of power projects in 2019
------------------------------
Low 2018 solar rates have put doubts on the viability of 46 GW of u/c coal-based power projects. Luckily, Govt has cancelled 50 GW of new TPP proposals. Even old TPP will face difficulty in attracting rail connectivity investment, and so become uncompetitive. Another worry is the high cost of imported coal.
In contrast, 13.8 GW of solar projects are u/c, and 22.8 GW solar projects have been tendered. There were uncertainties around safeguarding duties, but a 30% collapse in imported module prices should kick-start the construction of these projects. Govt is also tendering govt-owned solar projects to circumvent WTO rules to procure directly from domestic solar producers.
==========
THOUGHTS: Renewables costs will fall and pose an existential threat to inefficient thermal power producers. Falling storage costs will further reduce the scope of thermal power for balancing the grid ⟀◘
THOUGHTS: Renewables will certainly curtail the wasteful consumption of fossil fuels in the power sector. Safe nuclear may also be there to replace thermal generation. But, the need for more gas production and new oil fields remains for 2040. Gas demand can be met by many sustainable sources, oil can be eliminated from the transport sector, but there are many other uses for oil. Good, but it does NOT seem to stop the catastrophic rise in sea levels nor the relentless rise in air temperatures!! ⟀◘
THOUGHTS: We should see a resumption of the massive scaling up of Indian solar capacity. Even domestic producers will be benefited by specially targetted procurements. However, thermal power producers can't be in worse strife: an amazing 46 GW of coal-based projects are under construction and face an uncertain future!! ⟀◘
Renewable power replacing Thermal
New technologies will boost efficiencies in renewal power -- so much that by 2030, solar could cost Rs 1.9 - 2.3/unit, wind @ Rs 2.3-2.6/unit, and storage costs fall by 70%. Solar tracking and higher mast heights (btw 100 - 120m) are keys for achieving lower costs. The decline in storage cost (solar plus storage @ Rs 6.34/unit) will facilitate high penetrations of cheap solar into the grid.
By contrast, coal power will be more expensive. The cheapest pithead plants will be @ Rs 4.85/unit and others @ Rs 7/unit. The report says that coal power will be hit by rising transport costs and higher capital requirement to improve efficiencies and reduce pollution.
Investment is only slightly above current levels (Rs 1.75 lakh cr pa, up from Rs 1.45 lakh cr pa). In a high renewables scenario, the renewables share will reach 30% of total generation and 390 GW capacity. Small hydro and biomass projects will push this to 420 GW. Large hydro and nuclear will take it to 45% of total generation.
◘ Grid emission factor will fall by 25% from 733 gCO2/kWh in 2018 to 555 gCO2/kWh in 2030.
◘ The additional cost of balancing the grid @ 30% variable renewables, will be minimal.
◘ No new thermal plant, except designed to support renewables (with managed flexibility to balance the grid).
◘ Coal generation will stop growing from 2026-27. It will fall as coal plants retire, so most plants will be gone by 2050.
◘ Residential demand will grow strongly, with air conditioning a/c for 10% of demand.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/share-of-clean-energy-can-go-up-to-45-by-2030-in-india-despite-doubling-consumption-teri/67983171
Global demand for Energy till 2040
The scenario is based on a transition (via govt policy, innovation, society preferences) at the same old pace. Carbon emissions will rise at unacceptable rates -- as is predicted by climate experts, and this will prompt govts to take stronger measures to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
◘ 75% of new primary energy (and 85% of new energy supply) will be consumed in the power sector. Energy consumed by industry and buildings will rise to 75%, and transport demand falls quite sharply.
◘ Renewable energy will penetrate faster than any fuel has before, in history. It will become the largest source of power generation by 2040.
◘ Gas demand will grow
◘ Oil demand will rise in the first half of the period and then gradually plateau. Significant investment must be made for new oil fields to meet oil demand in 2040
◘ Coal demand is broadly flat
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/bp-energy-outlook-india-china-to-lead-energy-demand-growth-through-2040/67997466
Status of power projects in 2019
Low 2018 solar rates have put doubts on the viability of 46 GW of u/c coal-based power projects. Luckily, Govt has cancelled 50 GW of new TPP proposals. Even old TPP will face difficulty in attracting rail connectivity investment, and so become uncompetitive. Another worry is the high cost of imported coal.
In contrast, 13.8 GW of solar projects are u/c, and 22.8 GW solar projects have been tendered. There were uncertainties around safeguarding duties, but a 30% collapse in imported module prices should kick-start the construction of these projects. Govt is also tendering govt-owned solar projects to circumvent WTO rules to procure directly from domestic solar producers.
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RENEWABLES NEWS
energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com - Tata Power commissions South Asia’s largest grid-scale energy storage system - ET EnergyWorld
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/pm-narendra-modi-to-launch-300-projects-of-rs-65000-crore/67969227
HYDROPOWER NEWS
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/major-boost-for-4-hydro-projects-worth-rs-45000-crore/67968815
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-proposes-to-construct-400-mw-hydropower-project-in-nepal/67973726REPLY 5w - Solar power additions will get revived despite uncertainties over safeguarding and other taxes
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1) 13.8 GW of solar power are u/c. Another 22.8 GW projects have been tendered at the end of October 2018.
2) Module prices have collapsed by 30%. This should drive completions of solar projects, despite uncertainties.
3) Considerable public sector investment must flow into the Indian power grid to allow solar's penetration at rates envisaged.
Cancellation of coal-based power projects--------------------------------------------------
1) Very low solar rates (@ Rs 2.4/units) achieved in 2018, have cast doubt on the viability of new TPPs. This includes 46 GW coal-based power projects are under construction.
2) Govt has managed to defer or cancel around 50 GW of TPP proposals, ie. it has deferred 37 GW and cancelled 13 GW projects.
3) Existing TPPs will also find it hard to become cost-competitive v-v solar. This is due to the high cost of imported coal, and poor infra for fuel availability. Govt may not want to build rail connectivity for them, resulting in poor port rail connectivity, and other bottlenecks.
REPLY 5w
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