GST (Update)
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1. GST shortfall of States between April-November 2018 has shrunk to 10%. It was 20% for FY18 and 13% in the first 5mo of FY19. This is encouraging for Centre & States.
http://plus.google.com/u/0/100789863972538583352/posts/UKDSmmxABoo
However, a fall in December GST collections is not good for meeting Centre’s fiscal deficit target, as it is around Rs 5000cr below desired levels.The trend of under-performance on this score continues!
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/gst-mop-up-drops-to-rs-94700-crore-in-december/articleshow/67335407.cms
2. FM Jaitley says, "6 states have achieved the revenue-growth target, while 7 states were close". These states will not face difficulties after the mandatory 5-year compensation period finishes in 2022. However, a few other states (eg Northern States like HP, Punjab, J&K, Uttarakhand, Delhi) are running very high shortfalls.
3. Large consuming states like Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, MP, AP, Rajasthan, etc. have improved their collections and narrowed the shortfall. Large producing states are at standstill (eg Karnataka, Gujarat) or mildly worse than before (eg Maha, TN).
4. Centre has given away Rs 80,000cr through GST rate cuts since July 2017 (or pre-GST). Average monthly collections have grown from Rs 89,700cr to Rs 97,100cr, yet Centre faces a deficit of Rs 90,000cr in its finances. Can it be overcome?
Thoughts:
1. Nominal GST growth of 14% pa in times of sub 4% inflation sets a tough demand on the Centre. Somehow Centre is making the task harder by cutting rates and proposing to extend the compensation period!
2. Jaitley says States have set very high targets for tax collection and are falling short. The target relevant to Centre is the one set for compensating the States. If this was inflated then GST shortfall will look bad early on.
3. PwC India partner suggests these options: "It is well established that that lower tax rates result in more revenue, and a simpler tax procedure leads to higher compliance"... "A focus on lower tax rates and simplified procedures will take care of revenue buoyancy and is also a win-win for businesses”.
4. If followed, GST revenues will be boosted by the recent tax cuts. Also, fewer tax bands and simpler returns should increase tax buoyancy. States are also working on compliance and improving GST collections (eg Bihar, Assam). Higher spending from these consuming states will lead to economic activity in producing states, resulting in higher tax revenues.
5. An efficient tax system and better tax compliance are great for the “Ease of doing business” and the overall economic agenda — but as GST collections are indicating, these appear insufficient for meeting the overly ambitious revenue targets set by Centre and States. Higher GDP growth & renegotiating the GST pact with States are, as of now, the only way out.
6. Systemic difficulties of a few ‘problematic’ States (ie listed under 1. below) should be looked at.
===========
1. GST shortfall of States between April-November 2018 has shrunk to 10%. It was 20% for FY18 and 13% in the first 5mo of FY19. This is encouraging for Centre & States.
http://plus.google.com/u/0/100789863972538583352/posts/UKDSmmxABoo
However, a fall in December GST collections is not good for meeting Centre’s fiscal deficit target, as it is around Rs 5000cr below desired levels.The trend of under-performance on this score continues!
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/gst-mop-up-drops-to-rs-94700-crore-in-december/articleshow/67335407.cms
2. FM Jaitley says, "6 states have achieved the revenue-growth target, while 7 states were close". These states will not face difficulties after the mandatory 5-year compensation period finishes in 2022. However, a few other states (eg Northern States like HP, Punjab, J&K, Uttarakhand, Delhi) are running very high shortfalls.
3. Large consuming states like Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, MP, AP, Rajasthan, etc. have improved their collections and narrowed the shortfall. Large producing states are at standstill (eg Karnataka, Gujarat) or mildly worse than before (eg Maha, TN).
4. Centre has given away Rs 80,000cr through GST rate cuts since July 2017 (or pre-GST). Average monthly collections have grown from Rs 89,700cr to Rs 97,100cr, yet Centre faces a deficit of Rs 90,000cr in its finances. Can it be overcome?
Thoughts:
1. Nominal GST growth of 14% pa in times of sub 4% inflation sets a tough demand on the Centre. Somehow Centre is making the task harder by cutting rates and proposing to extend the compensation period!
2. Jaitley says States have set very high targets for tax collection and are falling short. The target relevant to Centre is the one set for compensating the States. If this was inflated then GST shortfall will look bad early on.
3. PwC India partner suggests these options: "It is well established that that lower tax rates result in more revenue, and a simpler tax procedure leads to higher compliance"... "A focus on lower tax rates and simplified procedures will take care of revenue buoyancy and is also a win-win for businesses”.
4. If followed, GST revenues will be boosted by the recent tax cuts. Also, fewer tax bands and simpler returns should increase tax buoyancy. States are also working on compliance and improving GST collections (eg Bihar, Assam). Higher spending from these consuming states will lead to economic activity in producing states, resulting in higher tax revenues.
5. An efficient tax system and better tax compliance are great for the “Ease of doing business” and the overall economic agenda — but as GST collections are indicating, these appear insufficient for meeting the overly ambitious revenue targets set by Centre and States. Higher GDP growth & renegotiating the GST pact with States are, as of now, the only way out.
6. Systemic difficulties of a few ‘problematic’ States (ie listed under 1. below) should be looked at.
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- Manageable States
1. Six states with nil deficits (AP, 5 NE states)
2. States with low (< 5-6%) deficits (Telengana, Maha, TN)
3. States with moderate but falling deficits (WB, UP)
4. States with very high but greatly improved deficits (Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, MP)
Problematic States:
1. Those with 30+% deficits (Punjab, HP, Puducherry, Uttarakhand, J&K)
2. Very High deficits with no decrease (Delhi, Karnataka, Goa)
3. Stubbornly high deficits (Kerala, Gujarat)
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/gst-revenue-shortfall-pan-india-numbers-bring-cheer-but-deficit-widens-in-tn-maharashtra-delhi/article25813549.eceREPLY 11w - December 04, 2018
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Revenue Secretary Ajay Pandey told about the plan is to introduce new and simplified GST return form from April 1.
“The GST has to be taxpayer friendly. With the current environment of IT, tax payer will soon have simple returns, refund process is being streamlined. We are going to make it completely online”.
REPLY 11w - January 01, 2019
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A fall in total GST collections for December is not good news. It comes before the new rate cuts that start on 1st January.
REPLY 11w
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