Monday, March 25, 2019

Overview of Horticulture
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Total Horticulture for All-India
MHa MMT
2014-15 23.410 280.986 =12.00 yield
2015-16 24.472 286.188
2016-17 3rd 25.109 299.853 =11.94 yield
2014►17 3nd ↑1.70 ↑18.87

Yields for 2016-17 are back up to 2014-15 levels (in fact: down by just 0.51%) after a slump last year. Production is rising faster than population growth.

Target yield method
Yields of 2014-15 were taken as baseline and target production for each item is calculated based on the new sown area. Lastly, data is aggregated sector-wise like fruit, veg, etc. and for total horticulture. Results: Total production for 2016/17 3rd advance equals the target. In other words, yield is not down by 0.5% but strictly equal. 2015-16 is 2.5% below target.
Actual Target
2014-15 280.99 same
2015-16 286.19 293.32
2016-17 2nd 299.85 299.60

14-15 15-16 16-17 3rd Area 14-5
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Total Fruits 89,514 90,183 93,707 6235
target same 92,081 93,995

Total Veg 166,566 169,064 176,177 9417
target same 174,822 178,270

Total Plant' 15,575 16,658 18,353 3434
target same 16,417 16,311

Total Spices 6,108 6,988 8,202 3317
target same 6,576 7,155

Total Flower 2143 2184 2277 249
target same 2372 2767

Area increases for fruit, veg, plantations, spices and flowers (from 2014/15 to 2016/17 3rd) are: 3.56%| 9.32%| 3.54%| 11.69%| 31.73%|.

Percent area has grown appreciably for spices, flowers and vegetables; and marginally for fruits and plantations. In terms of performance efficiency, spices and plantations were stars. Fruits did about the same, vegetables fared a little worse and flowers did poorly. Flowers clearly had a great market in last 2 years, but farmers have failed to deliver.

BTW, honey production increased by 17% in last 2 years (or 8% pa). Aromatic yield was up by 3.3%.

Deemed Area method
Under deemed area method, production changes are expressed as changes in area. So, if production doubles, it's as if the sown area (or deemed area) has doubled. Of course, production can change due to area or yield, so deemed area method captures changes in both!! Land is in short supply and farmers will try to maximize value. Thus deemed area changes (for various horticultural items) are a substitute for change in market values of production. Results see in charts and workings.

Data Ref: http://pibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2017/may/p201753002.pdf
http://agricoop.nic.in/sites/default/files/3.%202015-16%20%28Final%20Est.%29_2.pdf

Workings - my link https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B399nzYJFwaceVhtTkRYU1NfUXc/view?usp=sharing
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