Does this pattern make sense?
---------------------------------------------
PACIFIC China and Vietnam |---> high & slowing
INDIAN India and Bangladesh |---> high & increasing
GULF Middle East and Pakistan |---> low & halting
These linkages make sense. Pakistan has strongest relations with ME. Others are neighbours. Malaysia is inclined towards China— as both are in the Pacific and Malaysia has marked Chinese presence. Indonesia sits between the Pacific and Indian oceans. It seems more inclined towards India. Turkey is not linked to the Gulf—its growth is strong.
India between 2008-2016
-------------------------------------
India experienced a debt-fueled hyper growth between 2008-2010. This is followed immediately, and not surprisingly, by a sharp correction. Then growth normalized between 2012-14, which is perplexing given the mess the economy was in by that time. Perhaps agriculture is the savour. Between 20014-2016, growth accelerated. There is improved macro-economics, higher public investment and much higher FDI but bad bank loans, corporate indebtedness, surplus capacity and poor monsoons are a drag. Lower oil prices no doubt contributed to improving fiscal and current account deficits.
PACIFIC China and Vietnam |---> high & slowing
INDIAN India and Bangladesh |---> high & increasing
GULF Middle East and Pakistan |---> low & halting
These linkages make sense. Pakistan has strongest relations with ME. Others are neighbours. Malaysia is inclined towards China— as both are in the Pacific and Malaysia has marked Chinese presence. Indonesia sits between the Pacific and Indian oceans. It seems more inclined towards India. Turkey is not linked to the Gulf—its growth is strong.
India between 2008-2016
India experienced a debt-fueled hyper growth between 2008-2010. This is followed immediately, and not surprisingly, by a sharp correction. Then growth normalized between 2012-14, which is perplexing given the mess the economy was in by that time. Perhaps agriculture is the savour. Between 20014-2016, growth accelerated. There is improved macro-economics, higher public investment and much higher FDI but bad bank loans, corporate indebtedness, surplus capacity and poor monsoons are a drag. Lower oil prices no doubt contributed to improving fiscal and current account deficits.
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REPLY Sep 18, 2017 - India has potential to become leading producer of leather footwear
REPLY Sep 18, 2017 - Ceramic industry is set to grow very fast
REPLY Sep 18, 2017 - Govt wants paper industry to source raw materials from degraded lands (rather than import) and also offer farmers good prices. Perhaps govt is trying the same idea as food processing industry— ie. direct purchase from farmers, local handling and regional paper mills.
It's a tough task unless govt intervenes on imports and perhaps facilitates cost effective value chains.
REPLY Sep 18, 2017 - Report suggests there will be rapid growth in agri exports, and farmers income can double by 2022. It doesn't say how.
Perhaps extra production will come from intensive farming (eg aquaculture, poultry, dairy, serology, covered horticulture, honey), GM crops and multi-cropping due to irrigation.
REPLY Sep 18, 2017
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