Thursday, March 21, 2019

Is Adani Group getting confused and heading for insolvency?

Adani Power in a doghouse
1. Adani Group has reported large losses over 2 years for writing off investments in Mundra TP. AG is beset with troubles at Adani Power which has sky-high debt and minute net equity.
2. Turnaround at Adani Power is not coming any time soon. For example flagship, Mundra TP has been moth-balled. AG has not found buyers nor can it be run at a profit.
3. Court has disallowed compensatory higher tariff on imported coal for Mundra TP and has asked AP to refund earlier rebates at $1.5bn.
4. Rebate scheme encouraged AG to over-invoice coal imports and falsely claim higher compensation. It is also being investigated for parking monies abroad through over-invoicing capital equipment imports. The reported value of the scam is almost $4.5bn (see link 1).
5. AG/ AP has sought ex gratia higher tariff from states, but in the process may have lost its PPAs. Gujarat discom has identified cheaper alternatives to make up the shortfall.
6. Gujarat is planning to build 5000MW solar project which can be done quite fast. It is transferring coal-linkages & PPAs to out-of-state TPs -- which being closer to coal mines, can access cheaper coal.

Changing realities for thermal power producers
7. There is overcapacity of thermal power plants and more plants are under construction. Coal reforms and ever-improving transmission infra have created tough competition among coal-based power producers. It is forcing inefficient producers out of business.
8. Centre has increased domestic coal production and streamlined and liberalised coal linkages. Shortest route for sourcing coal is being promoted --eg. power producers can opt out of supply agreements and inter-state linkages are being adopted.
9. Indian Railways has reduced long-distance freight costs, allowed private freight terminals and wagons, and increased rail linkages including the upcoming Eastern DFC. The coastal route has been opened for transporting coal from East to West coast.
10. This has lowered cost of domestic coal; increased its availability and quality; and brought into play under-utilised plants that are close to coal mines or have low-cost road, rail or shipping linkages. As a result, thermal plants running on imported coal are becoming uncompetitive and untenable.

What is happening at Adani power?
11. Adani Power will now use domestic coal for two plants to improve profitability.
12. Queensland Coal Project will be put on hold as offtake to Mundra TP is not guaranteed. If QCP eventually goes ahead, Adani may earn more by selling coal in the open market.
13. AG/ AP will expand the Udupi Karnataka plant and add a new 1600MW Godda TP in Jharkhand. AP needs $2B for it but its net equity is around $150m — so how will it borrow or fund these projects?
14. Apparently, Bangladesh is paying over the odds, but this doesn't explain why Godda should rely on imported coal and that too when TP is located in a coal mining region!! (see link 2).
15. AG is doing solar power projects. It has 2GW renewables portfolio and is planning 10GW by 2022. It is in the process of setting up a "state-of-the-art solar manufacturing ecosystem". It claims to have strong financials, see http://adanirenewables.com

Links
1.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/04/13/supreme-court-loss-creates-new-problem-adanis-australian-mine/
2.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/26/adani-builds-coal-fired-power-plant-in-india-to-send-energy-to-bangladesh
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