Chinese steel dictates terms of trade in India even though India is a rival to China in the export markets. Chinese have dominance to manipulate prices and upset production of rival producers. So, despite Indian steel being competitive, govt needs to counter this strategy, much as it did in early 2017.
1. Following a surge in steel imports in 2016, govt followed up with MIP, anti-dumping duties, etc. Chinese steel exports at the same time, fell 25% yoy each month in 2017.
2. Steel consumption in China had increased by 9-10%. This tempered the export blitzkrieg (dumping) of previous 2 years on the world markets, and allowed other low cost producers to recover.
3. It opened exports for Indian steel, which surged by 20% in S Korea to 0.6mt in 2nd quarter of 2017, while Chinese exports fell 16% to 3mt. Chinese exports fell by 40% in SE Asia while Indian steel exports soared by 300%.
4. India's steel exports are inversely related to Chinese exports and India's imports. This means when Chinese are doing a blitzkrieg (dumping), India can't compete at home or abroad.
5. Steel imports are rising once again. This has happened because MIP has not been revised upwards in line with rise in steel prices, and is no longer stopping imports.
1. Following a surge in steel imports in 2016, govt followed up with MIP, anti-dumping duties, etc. Chinese steel exports at the same time, fell 25% yoy each month in 2017.
2. Steel consumption in China had increased by 9-10%. This tempered the export blitzkrieg (dumping) of previous 2 years on the world markets, and allowed other low cost producers to recover.
3. It opened exports for Indian steel, which surged by 20% in S Korea to 0.6mt in 2nd quarter of 2017, while Chinese exports fell 16% to 3mt. Chinese exports fell by 40% in SE Asia while Indian steel exports soared by 300%.
4. India's steel exports are inversely related to Chinese exports and India's imports. This means when Chinese are doing a blitzkrieg (dumping), India can't compete at home or abroad.
5. Steel imports are rising once again. This has happened because MIP has not been revised upwards in line with rise in steel prices, and is no longer stopping imports.
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- Mylink: State of Indian Steel industry in 2016, incl SAIL and coking coal
REPLY Jan 2, 2018
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