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- Feb 22, 2018
- Using deemed area method for major crops mentioned in Economic Survey 2017-18
Foodgrains (rice, wheat, pulses, coarse grains), Oilseeds, Sugarcane, Cotton, Jute & Mesta, select Plantations (tea, coffee, rubber), select Horticulture (potatoes)
Deemed Area method is a substitute for production. Its advantage is that it avoids adding up tonnage (which is distorted by sugarcane, etc) but computes the area that the change in production amounts to. In absence of market values (ie money), area is the common and important factor.
Deemed Area at yrX (for each item) =
▬> deemed Area x-1 + ( Px / Px-1-1 ) * Ax-1 * adjustment
where adjustment is:
∑ deemed Ax-1 / ∑ Ax-1
--------------- Year zero --------------
-
deemed A0 = A0 for each item
▬> ∑ deemed A0 = ∑ Area yr0
------------Years 1 to end
--------
Year 1 - 2 years comparison
dA1 = dA0 + ( P1 / P0 - 1 ) * A0 * ∑ dA0 / ∑ A0
▬> = A0 + (P1/P0 - 1)* A0
▬> = (P1/P0 )* A0
∑ dA1 = ∑ A0 + ∑ { (P1/P0 - 1)* A0) }
▬> = ∑ (P1/P0 ) * A0
(2 years comparison is quite straightforward)
Year x - series comparison
dAx = dAx-1 + ( Px / Px-1 - 1 )* Ax-1* ∑ dAx-1 / ∑ Ax-1
∑ dAx = ∑above or
1. Calculate (Px/Px-1 - 1)* Ax-1 for each year & item
2. Apply adjustment ∑ dAx-1 / ∑ Ax-1 to each item
3. Add dAx-1 to each item
4. Sum all dAx in the year
5. Sum all Ax in the year
REPLY Feb 26, 2018 - Changing crop patterns and explanations
-------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY
shift from Rice & Wheat -> Pulses & Maize
Oilseeds & Sugarcane -> Horticulture (data??)
Coffee -> Tea
Rubber -> Cotton
1. High growth of Cotton in 21st C is attributable to pest control
2. Rubber plantations that were done in 1970s and 1980s led to ramp up of rubber growth in last 20th C — probably due to good market demand created by automobiles. Imports & fall in profitability is why it didn't continue.
3. Maize has accelerated over decades, particularly in 20st C. It is attributable to growth in poultry (perhaps industry). India is quite cheap producer of poultry feed. Maize dragged up coarse cereals.
4. A significant slowdown in oilseeds (particularly rapeseed), though it continues to grow faster than major cereals. Large influx of cheaper palm oil and import friendly tariffs are likely causes. Growth of less oily soyabeans also suggest this.
5. Very large deceleration in Coffee production, to reach standstill in 21st C.
6. Tea has done very well in the 21st C. Not sure why - as tea gardens are under increasing hardship.
7. Pulses have been the story of 2010s, as seen by surge in Tur and Gram. Negative growth or standstill growth in 1990s & 2000s may be attributed to lack of effort, poor returns and imports.
8. Wheat and Rice have been grown according to demand. In case of rice, production has been partly led by Basmati exports. Wheat alternates between imports and exports. Saturation in Punjab & Haryana is made up by MP (wheat) & East India (rice).
9. Sugarcane requires water and this may have stagnated its growth in 21st C. Also UP has been laggard and the rest of India may have come to saturation. Drip irrigation and excellent variety for UP may see a revival in sugarcane tonnage and sugar yields.
10. Bajra has surprised by coming back quite strongly.
11. Jowar, Jute and Mesta are fading away.REPLY Feb 23, 2018 - Average growth in production of Milk & Fish in 3 years to 2017 (2014/15 to 2016/17) has jumped to 6% pa. These rates are 1.5 to 1.75% pa higher than the preceding 3 years. Eggs, Milk & Fish are now growing at an impressive 6% pa.
Per capita availability of 3 key protein foods has risen sharply in the last 10 years -- as production of Eggs, Milk & Fish has been growing faster than ever before, and population growth has sunk to low levels (6% pa production vs 1.2% pa population).
Milk production is starting from a very high base.
Annual Growth Rates for:
MILK EGGS FISH
2007-2011 4.38% 5.61% 5.16%
2011-2014 4.17% 5.85% 4.45%
2014-2017 5.93% 5.91% 6.05%
Milk Eggs Fish
1951 to 1961 1.52% 3.81% 3.67%
1961 to 1971 0.91% 5.83% 3.53%
1971 to 1981 3.14% 4.06% 2.89%
1981 to 1991 4.37% 5.70% 3.80%
1991 to 2001 3.44% 4.49% 3.34%
2001 to 2007 3.67% 4.79% 3.00%
REPLY 48w - Feb 23, 2018
- 48w
- Enhancing oilseeds
1. Eastern India — E. UP, Bihar, JH, OD, AS, WB, other NE
Rice fallow of
REPLY 49w - PULSES - catching up with long-term demand
---------------------------------------------
Pulses productivity is below 1/2 the levels in USA and Canada. This is because pulses are grown mainly under rain-fed conditions in India. As a result, India needs 35% of global area for 25% of global production. Yet inadequate production has created a persistent demand-supply gap, with imports of pulses rising every year as a percentage of total consumption. Imports have put upward pressure on prices and reduced availability and affordability of pulses for the poorer sections.
With prices rising and consumption expected to grow at 2.2%pa to 39mT by 2050, the only option for the govt is to lift domestic production. This means govt must tackle the many factors for low productivity and poor returns for farmers:
Low levels of irrigation ▬ increase irrigation cover, and encourage as 2nd or 3rd cropping on previously irrigated land
Inadequate production techniques ▬ encourage farmers to adopt most efficient techniques
Production risk ▬ promote crop insurance, contract farming and FPOs. Govt procurement helps in offtake.
High price volatility ▬ govt procurement (or MSP) along with quantitative import tariffs can help stabilise prices.
Surge in total pulses production
---------------------------------------------------
All of the above were tried. A simple MSP regime is cited as the chief reason for the surge in total pulses production. Moreover govt has set up quality seed banks and has promoted 2nd cropping on rice fallows. Crop insurance was introduced with mixed results. Zero tilling method is ideal for 2nd cropping in low rainfall regions. This means a push for mechanisation, which is also happening. Govt has encouraged marketing mechanisms, eg FPOs, contract farming, e-NAM. Lastly govt has imposed stiff import barriers like high tariffs and quantitative restrictions, while encouraging exports of some pulses.
posted in: https://plus.google.com/u/0/100789863972538583352/posts/NsYRfEm5RRq
REPLY 44w REPLY 42w - Trends in Spice production
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80% of spices follow a predictable growth pattern, growing by around 1.1% above the total spices growth, over 7 years to 2017/18. Total spices production is 7.7% and yield growth is 4.1%.
Notice acceleration of growth index from 2014.
REPLY 42w
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