Friday, March 22, 2019

Complicated world of Pakistan
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Fractious politics threatens not only to strain Pakistan’s relations with the United States but heightens tensions in geostrategic region of Balochistan. The crackdown by PMN-L-led federal government comes at a time when military is trying to rehabilitate Saeed and his band of terrorists. "These militant groups—that have served the state—will be given a route into the mainstream politics where their energies can be utilised.” JUD, Saeed's political front may have invited the crackdown after it declared, "there is little else more patriotic than ensuring the ouster of the Sharifs. Pakistan needs a government that serves Pakistani, not Indian interests."

Pakistan and its military have always treated Saeed with kid gloves as it would otherwise have provoked terrorist reprisals, and hostilities from its own people. It can also be held that taking action against Saeed did not serve Pakistan's national interest. China sees the military’s use of proxies against India as beneficial, but now it also needs stability in Balochistan, a vital node in Beijing’s BRI that is also earmarked as China’s foreign military base. Beijing may be forced to freeze CPEC investment until the country’s domestic politics stabilises.

Complicated world of Pakistan: brewing chaos in Balochistan
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"I am concerned if we continue to throw surprises to the outside world, then even China can be forced to rethink its economic investments,” lamented Iqbal, CPEC negotiator for Pakistan. Iqbal spoke after the military seemingly backed a successful effort to force the resignation of Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, the CM of Balochistan, home to CPEC and its crown jewel, the deep-sea port of Gwadar. His resignation signalled an end of efforts to divide the Baloch nationalist movement, and weaken Islamic militants that have wreaked havoc in Balochistan with attacks on Chinese, Pakistani and Shiite targets.

The removal of Zehri, a member of PML-N's collation, was also part of an effort to prevent the PML-N from returning to power in elections scheduled for July. Millitary has a long history of supporting militant religious groups to counter nationalists of Balochistan. But supporting militants to counter PML-N in Balochistan, as elsewhere in Pakistan, runs the risk of escalating the violence, and provides an opening for external forces like the US and Saudi Arabia, to use the province as a launchpad to sow trouble.
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